MRM Research Roundup: Valentine’s Day Edition

This Valentine's Day edition  of Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine's Research Roundup features dining and gifting trends including the importance of experience.

Last Year, By the Numbers

Whether you're celebrating a romantic evening out or opting for a cozy night in, one thing is clear—Valentine’s Day is big business for restaurants as diners splurge on premium meals, wine and desserts. New data fom restaurant tech platform Toast, reveals how restaurants can prepare for another busy Valentine’s Day in 2025. Analyzing data from full-service restaurants on Feb. 14, 2024, compared to an average Wednesday, Toast found:

🥩 Steak sales skyrocketed 135 percent

🍷 Wine sales jumped 63 percent

💰 The average check size increased by 25 percent

🏠 Takeout orders surged 46 percent

📈 Overall transactions rose 41 percent

💖 Valentine’s Day 2024 by the Numbers

🍽️ Romantic Meals

• Steak sales jumped 135 percent, highlighting it as the ultimate Valentine’s Day meal.

• Seafood orders doubled (+100 percent), while sushi sales soared 94 percent
• For couples looking to recreate their own Lady and the Tramp moment, pasta dishes saw a 91 percent increase
• Couples also turned up the heat with curry sales rising by 53 percent and fajitas by 59 percent
• Dessert sales rose by 80 percent

🍷 Wine & Dine

• Wine sales climbed 63 percent, making it the most popular drink of the night.
• Spirits also saw an uptick: Rum (+24 percent), whiskey (+20 percent), and tequila (+18 percent).

📊 Bigger Checks & More Guests

• The average ticket size was 25 percent higher than a typical night.

• Restaurants saw 41 percent more transactions
• The busiest dining hour? 7 p.m., contributing 21 percent of total transactions.
• Takeout orders increased 46 percent

Shift in Guest Dining Preferences for Valentine's 

As restaurants prepare for Valentine's Day, new data from Tock reveals a clear shift in guest dining preferences and booking patterns.

Among the highlights:

• Restaurants are seeing prepaid bookings up 67 percent compared to this time last year.
• There's growing interest in premium dining experiences, with prepaid reservations above $200 now representing 10.1 percent of all bookings for Valentine’s Day so far this year, up from 7.2 percent in 2024.
• Increase in total bookings: Overall bookings for Valentine's Day are up 48 percent as compared to this time last year, with prepaid bookings up 67 percent¹, indicating that diners are looking for more than a standard reservation by seeking out coveted experiences.
• Prepaid bookings now represent 38.6 percent of all bookings on Tock so far for this holiday.
• Increase in average prepaid value: The average prepaid reservation has increased 36 percent to $102 so far this year, up from $75 in 2024.²This reflects the broader trend toward premium experiences.

"Valentine's Day isn't just about candlelit dinners anymore," says Matthew Tucker, Head of Tock. "We're seeing a shift in how restaurants and diners are redefining the occasion – from champagne brunches to interactive chef's tastings. These non-traditional experiences are booking up faster than standard dinner reservations, sometimes months in advance. It's clear that restaurants that dare to break from tradition are capturing diners' attention in new ways."

Gifts That Are In

Americans have spoken, and the most popular Valentine’s Day gift this year is… not a tangible gift. A recent study from OpenTable found that 35 percent of respondents are hoping to receive an experience e.g. dining out.

Recent diner data from OpenTable shows that in the US,Valentine's Day reservations are trending higher than 2024, up double digits YoY. And reservations are being snapped up quickly, based on last year’s Valentine’s Day, the majority of reservations are already in. But don’t fret: last year, 28 percent of Valentine’s Day reservations were made within 48 hours of dining. For those who leave things to the last minute, searching by date and time on OpenTable will save you dining heartache, or try your hand at setting an alert. 

What Are Your Plans?

Despite inflation concerns, InMarket’s new 2025 Valentine’s Day Survey found that 65 percent of those celebrating the holiday do not intend to change their plans based on higher prices. In fact, going out to dinner/lunch (56 percent) is the most popular way respondents plan to celebrate the holiday this year. However:

• 41 percent said they planned to dine at home instead of dining out.
• 28 percent said they planned to dine at a less expensive restaurant.

When asked more specifically what type of restaurant they plan to visit for Valentine’s Day, nearly half of respondents indicated they would visit a casual restaurant, followed by fine dining establishments (35 percent). FCRs and QSRs were less popular, with just 5 percent and 4 percent of respondents indicating they would dine at these types of restaurants, respectively.

Rethinking the Holiday

According to Tastewise, financial constraints are forcing people to rethink their Valentine’s Day spending, prioritizing affordability over indulgence.

The main findings of a survey of 60,000 adults include:

• 65 percent prefer celebrating Valentine’s Day dinner at home to save money 
• 44 percent spend less than $15 on their meal 
• 1 in 4 said that cost is the biggest factor influencing their food choices for the occasion
• 87 percent more likely to spend on food and drinks rather than gifts 
• 1 in 3 respondents said pizza is their favorite cost-effective Valentine's Day dinner option

Alon Chen, CEO and Co-Founder of Tastewise, expects a continued shift towards afforable celebrations, commenting: "Amidst the rising food inflation, our consumer data once again proves that affordability plays a huge role in how people approach special occasions like Valentine's Day. Nowadays, romance looks more like having meaningful moments rather than sharing expensive gifts; consumer interest in the experience of a meal has grown 85 percent over the last two years. Whether sharing a pizza at home or going for more budget-friendly meals, the focus is shifting toward connection and quality time, rather than how much is spent. It’s a refreshing take on celebrating love!”

Valentine's Day Trends

Hospitality industry expert Andrea Abbondanza, CEO and Founder of SEO for Restaurants, says several key trends are shaping this year's Valentine's Day dining landscape:

Inflation-resistant spending

Despite rising costs, consumers seem willing to splurge on Valentine's Day experiences, viewing them as "affordable luxuries" in uncertain times.

Pent-up demand drives bookings

After years of pandemic restrictions, couples are welcoming the chance to celebrate. High-end restaurants are seeing the effects, with many fully booked weeks ahead of time.

Extended celebrations

Many restaurants offer Valentine's specials throughout the week to maximize revenue and accommodate demand, not just on February 14th.

Creative menu offerings

From aphrodisiac-themed dishes to interactive dining experiences, establishments are innovating to stand out in a competitive market.

Rise of solo dining

An increasing number of singles are embracing "self-love" celebrations, prompting restaurants to offer special menus for solo diners.

Tech-enhanced experiences

QR code menus, contactless payments, and online reservation systems are now standard, streamlining the dining experience.

Abbondanza concludes: “Valentine’s Day is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the restaurant industry. It’s an opportunity for establishments to showcase their creativity, for local businesses to leave a lasting impression, and for diners to support restaurants while celebrating love and connection.