MRM Research Roundup: April-Fool’s-Day 2019 Edition

This edition of Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine's Research Roundup features some  "very interesting" trends the experts at Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants revealed on April 1, top emerging brands, biophilic design trends, bad hygiene, restroom cleanliness and LGBTQ workplace equality.

Culinary + Cocktail Trend Forecast?

Will the real foodies please stand up? According to Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants’ Spring 2019 Culinary + Cocktail Trend Forecast, butter is best in more than just coffee, juicy succulents are the new cauliflower steaks, and the whole plate (and cutlery) movement is taking sustainability to the next level. With regards to the bar scene, expect to see an increase in drinks where size doesn’t matter, municipal grass-infused beverages, and cocktails actually made in bathtubs.

"As a company that’s always been at the forefront of major food trends and innovations, it was our duty to uncover additional late-breaking trends that we predict will continue to shape our industry,” says Scott Gingerich, Kimpton’s Senior Vice President of Restaurants & Bars. “We like to think that with this report we’ve pinpointed the truly life-altering trends that will become your absolute definitive guide to eating and drinking in restaurants this year.”

As one of the largest operators of multi-concept restaurants and bars, Kimpton is uniquely positioned to leverage industry expertise across the U.S., Europe and the Caribbean to develop this trend report. Each year, the Kimpton Culinary + Cocktail Trends Forecast reveals the flavors, ingredients and philosophies that will be explored by the most cutting-edge chefs and bartenders in the year ahead. For this trend report specifically, in addition to individually surveying billions of chefs and bartenders, trends were uncovered by extensive and highly-targeted Google searching by Kimpton interns and hours of Instagram scrolling. 

Culinary Trends

• Coffee Grounds on Toast:  Move over avocado toast, 66 percent of the trendiest chefs note that spreading raw third wave coffee grounds on toast will be the next millennial obsession. (top photo by Michelle Banovic)
• Keto Pasta: Leaning into the keto diet trend, Kimpton is predicting noodles made from real butter as a great carb-free alternative that goes particularly well with Bolognese. This hot new trend will have everyone asking, “Is butter a carb?”
• Succulent Steaks: While cauliflower steaks have crept their way onto menus as entrees in recent years, we will see succulents take their place as an exciting new option for plant loving vegetarians. These steaks are mouth-wateringly juicy – or should we say succulent?
• Edible Plates + Cutlery: The next phase in sustainability is zero-waste dinners, where consumers will have the chance to finish their dinner and gobble down the silverware and dishes as well.
• Sporks Make a Comeback: In effort to save on labor costs, restaurants will eliminate forks and spoons completely, and reintroduce sporks in fine dining.
•  House Plants You Can Eat: From Fiddle Leaf Fig to Spider Plants to Bromeliads, we’ll take the Jungalow™ trend from your house to your mouth.  
• Savory Shaved Ice: 68 percent of chefs surveyed will infuse savory favorites into this vacation classic including Green Goddess, Buffalo Blue Cheese, and Truffle Salumi shaved ice.

Cocktail Trends

• Salt Water – bottled flat and sparkling water are on the way out, and salt water is taking their place. By that we mean electrolyte-rich, salted water sourced directly from the Pacific Ocean. Californians are particularly thrilled for this drought-resistant offering that can also be used in cocktails.
  

  

•  Putting the Bathtub Back in Bathtub Gin – with the motto of “what’s old is new again,” we’re predicting the resurgence of bathtub gin, which we’ll be leading with DIY gin making kits for use with our in-room bathtubs.
• Municipal Grass Takes the Mainstage – taking botanical infused beverages to the next level, we predict municipal grass-infused cocktails will be the next big thing in the farm (or city street) to table movement. Micro Drinks – gone are the days of the pointy mustachios, the vests with arm garters, and the tipped fedora at the cocktail bar; the next wave in high-end service will be tiny, perfect drinks made in doll cups though exclusive partnerships with boutique small batch toy shops. 

 Fishbowl's Emerging Brands Report

Fishbowl announced its sixth annual Emerging Brands Report. Each year the report features a list of 30 emerging restaurant brands displaying growth based on progressive and innovative approaches to food, service, atmosphere, and customer service. For 2019, the Top 10 are, in order, Cava Grill, Bartaco, True Food Kitchen, Dig Inn, Mendocino Farms, Urban Plates, Lemonade, The Little Beet, Bibibop Asian Grill, and Punch Bowl Social. True Food Kitchen, Mendocino Farms, and Cava Grill also made the list in 2018. 

To create the list, Fishbowl solicited nominations from industry experts, food enthusiasts, industry executives, advisors, and thought leaders. In addition, blogs, industry publications, and media mentions were reviewed. Fishbowl's proprietary social analytics was then utilized to develop more structured reviews, check-ins, and ratings.

"This rich data source is important as it reveals how brands position themselves against one another, and based on ratings and frequency trends, we evaluate growth in consumer enthusiasm," said Fishbowl's Chief Analytics Officer Mike Lukianoff. A restaurant's performance—specifically in the areas of ratings and review count growth—determined its inclusion on the 2019 list. "Many times, consumers discover a brand early in its development and become emotionally invested in its growth," said Lukianoff. "This creates an active sense of ownership that drives their loyalty and increases support on social media." 

The Fishbowl Social Score™, which was introduced into the ranking process last year, was used to determine key performance indicators that rate a restaurant's success on a 1-10 scale across multiple social media channels. Cava Grill, with a 9.8 rating, led the list, followed by Bartaco at 9.7 and True Food Kitchen at 9.6. The Fishbowl Social Score also factors in an "Enthusiasm Index" which is based on the number of buzz phrases that reviewers use when they write up their commentary about each restaurant experience. "This method provides us with essential insight into consumer feedback, frequency measures from social activity by location, and growth if there has been a recent or a planned unit expansion," said Lukianoff.

Each year, Fishbowl's Emerging Brands list contains aspects that serve as indicators of existing trends. One year, burger and pizza restaurants dominated, while in other years, "fresh" brands or restaurants with brand strength topped the list. Distinctive in 2018 was the diversity of concepts from burgers and Mediterranean to Asian and Italian. This year, restaurants offering healthy, high-quality nutritional foods, salads, and vegan menus dominated the list.

"It has been exciting to watch brands enter the list as new concepts and go on to achieve great success in the marketplace," said Lukianoff. "Social Media can make or break a restaurant's reputation, and it's those that understand this marketing concept who can find themselves with a profound competitive advantage." Social Data Analytics is a key component in the suite of analytic capabilities that Fishbowl delivers to the restaurant industry. Its unique digital and data platform enables clients to leverage knowledge so they can engage guests in a more personalized manner and reach customers via preferred channels.

A full report on the extended list of the Top 30 Emerging Brands is available for download here.

Millennial Parents Love to Dine Out

Millennial parents, just like parents from the generations that preceded them, are increasingly looking to restaurants to take on the task of cooking for their families. Millennials with children increased their restaurant visits by five percent in 2018 compared to prior year, reports The NPD Group. Their visit increase is in comparison to flat traffic growth for the total foodservice industry in 2018, according to NPD, which tracks U.S. consumers’ use of restaurants and other foodservice outlets on a daily basis. 

Millennials overall make the most restaurant visits per capita although their visits have been slowing. As teens and young adults they influenced the growth of the fast casual category, the “fresh” movement, and were early adopters of the hottest sauces and an assortment of ethnic flavors. Now as parents with hectic lives they’re turning to restaurants for convenience. Their outlets of choice for a family meal are quick service restaurants, which includes fast casual restaurants, where they made 7.3 billion visits last year. Dinner is the meal when they are most likely to turn to foodservice, but lunch and morning meal get their share of visits as well. 

Where Millennials eat their foodservice meals or snacks varies with 46 percent eaten at home, 30 percent eaten at the restaurant, and the remaining percentage spread out among eating in the car, eating at work, at another location, and other places. When at home Millennial parents will often blend a restaurant item with items they prepared. These types of blended at home meals are forecast to grow over the next few years, according to NPD’s Future of Dinner report. 

“Millennials are and will continue to be important to the restaurant industry,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America.“Not only are they a large generational group but their attitudes about food and eating, which they’ve taken through life stages, have a tremendous influence on the foodservice industry.” 

Retail Innovation Readiness Index

Small to medium-sized merchants in the food and accommodations markets are motivated by competitive pressures and the drive to increase sales, followed by increasing consumer loyalty, according to the new edition of the Retail Innovation Readiness Index, a PYMNTS and AEVI collaboration. But a survey of 500 merchants in those markets indicate many are lagging in readiness to innovate, providing an opportunity for merchant payment solutions providers to offer consultative services and solutions.

PYMNTS surveyed food and accommodation companies, including coffee shops, bars, quick serve restaurants (QSRs) and sit-down restaurants, hotels, hostels and bed and breakfast facilities. While larger businesses in these segments have been quick to adopt point of sale (POS) solutions with integrated apps, smaller merchants are lagging behind.

While relatively few smaller merchants have adopted so called Smart POS systems, it is not due to lack of interest. Roughly one third (37 percent) of merchants say they are either very or extremely interested in adopting a Smart POS solution, and 40.2 percent indicated they had not previously heard of the features available with these systems but are interested in putting them to use.

“The survey provides insight into a ready market for Smart POS solutions, but a merchant base that needs guidance and assistance in sorting through all the new options available,” said Nicky Koopman, VP of content and value-added apps and services. “Acquirers have an opportunity to position themselves as trusted advisors who can sort through myriad options to tailor suites of value-added apps and services that please their customers and optimize business operations on Smart POS platforms.”

These merchants expect a POS system to be cost effective, both to implement and to operate. But convenience is the most important factor to look for according to majorities of both accommodation (56.6 percent) and food merchant (54.6 percent) businesses. Overall, two-thirds of those surveyed say ease of use is a major appeal of Smart POS systems.

Smart POS solutions can transform the traditional merchant countertop into a dynamic Point of Interaction (POI) that can integrate purchases with consumer-pleasing features such as coupons, promo codes and QR scans, and online features like enabling customers to book appointments and services, order products and track deliveries. These all-in-one solutions can also improve business operations with apps to improve customer loyalty, manage inventory, know when promotions are likely to be most successful, and identify top performers in their workforce.

Learn more about merchant needs in food and accommodations; download the full Retail Innovation Readiness Index here.

Bad Hygiene is Biggest Turn-Off

Bad hygiene’ is biggest turn off for customers

Bad hygiene has been ranked the biggest turn-off for customers dining in both restaurants and hotels, a new study finds.

A survey of over 2,000 adults conducted by Big Domain shows that the majority (56 percent) would make a complaint or request that money is taken deducted from a bill if they found an object in their food (such as a plaster or hair).

Almost half (49 percent) claimed that receiving a cold meal would also be cause for complaint, followed by receiving something different to what they ordered (42 percent) and because the quality of the food is not what they expected (35 percent).

Almost a quarter (24 percent) of adults admit to never leaving a tip for any kind of service at all, and for those that do, the average tipping rate is between six percent and ten percent.

Younger people appear to be the most generous, with those aged 16 to 24 tipping between 16-20 percent on average. The most ‘tight-fisted’ age group is 55 years and over, with 16 percent leaving no tip at all.

Belfast is the most generous city, with more than 9 in 10 (92 percent) people saying they would always leave a tip in a restaurant, followed by residents in Glasgow (91 percent), and London (89 percent). People in Sheffield would be least likely to leave a tip, with just 72 percent of its residents stating they would always leave extra for gratuity. The data also shows how 43 percent of people said they feel uncomfortable when a service charge is automatically added to their bill, and over a quarter (26 percent) will not leave a tip if they don’t believe it will go to the individual that served them.

One in 10 people admit they would ‘rather keep the money for themselves’ than add it to the bill, and a further 10 percent said they always leave a tip because they think it’s ‘polite’ and ‘the right thing to do’.

People’s tipping habits do, however, change when abroad, suggesting that generosity is increased when on holiday. For example, just 6 percent of respondents said they don’t leave a tip in a restaurant when on holiday, compared to almost a quarter (24 percent) that don’t when dining in the UK. 

Men and women also tend to become more generous towards other services abroad and tend to tip hotel staff 50 percent more when on holiday than they would to hotel staff in the UK. (34 percent vs 15 percent.) This is also the case for bar staff, with just 12 percent of people tipping them in the UK and 20 percent doing so when abroad.

To view the full results visit the Tipping Etiquette Guide here.

The Importance of a Clean Restroom

One in two Americans are willing to ante up more cash at businesses that have clean, well-maintained restrooms, according to the 10th Annual Healthy Hand Washing Survey by Bradley Corp. The number of those who will “definitely” or “probably” spend more money has hiked up seven points to 52 percent this year compared to 45 percent in 2018.

In addition, 64 percent of consumers make a conscious decision to choose a business based on the fact that it has cleaner, well-maintained restrooms. Women are even more likely to be drawn to pleasing restrooms compared to men (67 percent vs. 61 percent). 

In fact, clean restrooms are so desirable that one in three Americans say they’d pay to use a restroom if they were assured it was clean and well-stocked. 

“Consistently, over the 10 years of our survey, a large majority of Americans say they expect a high quality business to have a high quality restroom,” said Jon Dommisse, director of strategy and corporate development for Bradley Corp. “So, when a customer encounters a messy restroom, their perception of that business and its products and services are tarnished. Even worse, 55 percent are unlikely to return to a business after a bad restroom experience, which can have a devastating effect on sales.”

“On the flip side, well-maintained restrooms attract customers who reward those businesses with increased spending. It simply makes good business sense to keep restrooms clean and modern-looking so customers come back.”

“Nearly 60 percent of Americans tell us that, on average, they use public restrooms anywhere from one to five times per week, and an additional 21 percent use restrooms six or more times a week,” Dommisse said.  “In all, 80 percent of people regularly use public restrooms. As odd as it may sound, for many of us, public restrooms are an important part of our everyday lives.”

Public restrooms also provide functional space beyond the necessities of using the toilet and washing hands. Almost half of adults utilize restrooms to check their appearance and 40 percent blow their nose or cough. Interestingly, 27 percent regard restrooms as a respite or getaway. They visit the restroom to avoid someone, cry, hide or take a mental health break. Another 25 percent use their cellphone in restrooms. 

Despite visiting restrooms regularly, Americans report an increasingly high degree of aggravation with them. Their top aggravations include toilets that are clogged or not flushed (85 percent), empty or jammed toilet paper dispensers (83 percent), and partition doors that don’t latch (78 percent).  In all, nearly 70 percent of Americans reported having an unpleasant restroom experience. 

“Based on these pain points, it makes sense that American’s top requests for improvements are keeping restrooms cleaner and better stocked,” Dommisse said. 

“The state of a restroom can have a measurable effect on the health of a business. Our aim for this research over the past 10 years has been to understand hand washing habits and help businesses improve their restrooms and attract repeat customers.”

The 10th Annual Healthy Hand Washing Survey by Bradley Corp. queried 1,264 American adults online Jan. 3-9, 2019, about their hand washing habits in public restrooms and concerns about germs, colds and the flu. Participants were from around the country, were 18 years and older, and were fairly evenly split between men and women (49 and 51 percent).

For more information,  click here.

Top Trends in Biophilic Design

Ambius, the world's largest interior landscaping company, premiered their proprietary trends report, a first for the biophilic category that highlights the top-six trends in biophilic design that have staying power. These architectural applications are poised to change the way people work and operate within the built environment. 

Part of the larger wellness movement, biophilic design integrates nature and natural patterns into building architecture in order to create a human-nature connection that can help positively change the way people work. Research shows that integrating biophilic design into indoor environments positively impacts employees in several ways: 

• Reduced employee absenteeism 
• Improved health 
• Increased mood and feeling of well-being 
• Improved productivity 
• Increased employee engagement 
• Reduced stress levels 
• Mental restoration and reduced fatigue

"Ambius' 2019 Biophilic Design Trends Report explores the leading design elements that will change the way people work, engage, and perform in the built environment," said Kenneth Freeman, Head of Innovation, Ambius. "The aesthetic power that plants can bring to a business has long been recognized and those who chose to enhance their workspaces with a variety of natural design elements, will see the dramatic health and wellness benefits to their overall employee base."

In collaboration with an elite team of design experts that cover large, small, and emerging markets throughout the United States and Canada, Ambius identified the following six trends in biophilic design that are changing the built environment.

Trend 1: Sustainably-Sourced and Reclaimed Woods 
Wood may be the most popular of the biophilically-designed construction elements. From simple aesthetic flourishes to large-scale architectural installments, wood is a central part of the biophilic revolution.

Trend 2: Eye to the Sky 
Ceilings are having their moment in the design spotlight. From hanging plants and skylights to statement ceiling designs and circadian lighting installations, the ceiling is the next frontier for interior designers and architects.

Trend 3: Green Integration 
Trends data suggests that architects and designers are increasingly integrating plants, green walls, large green installations, and more into designs during pre-construction and renovations, rather than adding them post-completion as secondary aesthetic choice.

Trend 4: Lighting 2.0 Introducing Biodynamic Lighting 
Biodynamic lighting is the next evolution of commercial lighting. This trend introduces lighting systems that mirror natural sunlight conditions within the built environment which help to regulate the human body's natural circadian rhythm.

Trend 5: Divide and Prosper 
Green wall dividers, a revolutionary new space-enhancing element that provides resolution to many of the challenges facing open office environments everywhere, are agile and adaptable for dynamic work spaces while also incorporating a natural biophilic component at minimal cost and invasiveness.

Trend 6: Flooring and Restoring 
Carpet and flooring designers are incorporating uniquely biophilic design characteristics such as natural stone, wood, forest floors, and more into their concepts. The goal is to create natural textures for floors that have the same distinct qualities as natural environments such as the forest floor, a meadow, or a riverbed.

To view the complete "Biophilic Design Trends Report",  click here.

Hospitality Management Salary Survey Report

Gecko Hospitality, North America’s premiere recruiting firm that connects top talent and companies within the hospitality and restaurant industries, released its fourth annual Hospitality Management Salary Survey Report. 

“Every year, we uncover trends that surprise us," said Robert Krzak, President, Gecko Hospitality. “This is the most comprehensive salary survey report in the industry and contains a wealth of information to help any hiring manager plan for future growth.”

In total, more than 1,800 restaurant and hospitality management professionals throughout the United States and Canada participated in the survey between January 2018 and December 2018. Participants span the hospitality segment: quick service, fast casual, and family and upscale dining. 

Survey results include key industry insights on gender, geographic location, turnover, and salary increases. 

Key findings include: 

• Thirty-two percent of women received a salary increase compared to twenty-seven percent of men. However, starting salaries for women in executive chef, general manager and assistant manager roles are below that of men in the same role.
• For Director of Sales positions, hands-on industry experience is more important to hiring managers than a college degree.
• No room for growth, not money, was the number one reason hospitality managers left their employer. Finding a better opportunity was also cited as a key driver for leaving. 
• Participants, both women and men, average two jobs in the past five years. 

To download a free copy of the survey, click here.

Employee Frustration

A new study reveals that more than half of hourly employees say their current role prevents them from maximizing their full potential at work. The new research from WorkJam  found that 61 percent of frustrated employees cite scheduling and communication pain points as reasons for leaving. The study also finds that today’s hourly workforce has little pushback when it comes to the idea of implementing a Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) policy at work. 

Titled “Embracing a Bring Your Own Device Policy in the Workplace,” the study polled over 1,000 U.S.-based hourly employees and employers across the retail, hospitality, logistics, healthcare, and banking industries to determine sentiment around BYOD policies. Among other findings, the study revealed that, across industries, there is little pushback from employees about using their personal devices for work purposes. In fact, 57 percent of millennials would prefer to use their personal mobile devices to access information such as schedules and training materials. WorkJam also found that more than two-thirds (69 percent) of employees believe that with the right application, they’d have an easier time picking up shifts that accommodate their schedules.

“Our smartphones are an extension of who we are, and being able to integrate aspects of our work lives into our personal devices creates ease and comfort for employees,” said Steven Kramer, co-founder, president, and CEO of WorkJam. “Today, every U.S. workplace relies on smartphones, and the service industry is no exception. If used in conjunction with a BYOD policy, employers can foster a more productive, engaged, and loyal workforce.”

According to Kramer, these findings should call attention to the impact implementing a BYOD workplace policy can have when it comes to building a more engaged and productive workforce. 

“It’s never been more imperative that employers put the power of communication and scheduling into employees’ hands,” Kramer said. “Having access to a central repository of training information that can be updated instantaneously will enable employers to retrieve information on their own time, from anywhere. Additionally, there is no longer confusion when policies change. Entire departments are alerted immediately when there’s a change in operations.”

This is where a digital workplace platform can help employers boost employee productivity, increase transparency throughout the company, and improve the employee experience by harnessing the power of employees’ personal devices. 

With WorkJam, getting in touch with a manager is only a few taps away, and important training materials can be accessed whether the employee is at home or work. This gives employees greater control over their work-life balance, boosting morale, and lowering instances of turnover. Organizations that make this investment now can get ahead of the competition while enhancing culture and creating opportunities for increased efficiency. 

“It’s no longer a question of whether organizations should adopt a digital workplace policy,” Kramer said. “It’s about when they should make the change.” 

To download the new report,  click here.

Global Packaging Trends

 Mintel, announced four trends impacting the global packaging industry in 2019 and beyond.  

Connected Packaging: Multiple technologies are enabling brands to connect physical packaging to the virtual world.

Closing the Loop: Brands have an opportunity to differentiate and ride consumer awareness of recycling issues.

Reinventing the Box: With online shopping set to gain further popularity, brands must fully establish an e-commerce packaging strategy.

Plastic-Free: As the momentum behind plastic-free supermarket aisles grow, brands need to consider what packaging solutions can give them shelf space.

Looking ahead, David Luttenberger, Global Packaging Director at Mintel, discusses the major trends influencing the packaging sector worldwide during 2019, including implications for consumers, brands, and manufacturers. 

Connected Packaging

“Connected packaging is witnessing renewed interest, driven by growth in ownership of connected devices worldwide and advancement in technologies that link packaging to the online world. Brands have a wealth of options to connect virtually with packaging – from QR codes and other graphic markers to near field communication, radio frequency identification, bluetooth and augmented reality. A vital link between physical and digital shopping worlds, brands can capitalize on connected packaging to influence how they are viewed online, together with delivering engaging content and product-specific information to directly influence purchasing decisions.”

Closing the Loop

“Proclamations by brands and converters touting commitment to 100 percent recyclable materials or packaging being 100 percent recycled dominate industry headlines. But the reality that few of them have yet to fully consider is how, where, and who will be supplying and recycling these materials. Though recyclable packaging claims have become common, claims to include recycled content are still rare. Low availability of high-quality recycled plastic and concerns over food safety are hampering the use of recycled material in food and drink. And while recycling may be second nature to some, inconvenience and confusion surrounding recycling are a barrier for others. With no option to ship packaging waste off-shore and out of sight, we are likely to see fast improvements in recycling facilities. This will drive up capacity for high-quality recycled material. Going forward, brands have an opportunity to ride consumer awareness of recycling issues by being part of the solution and committing to using recycled material in new packaging.”

Reinventing the Box

“The rapid development of e-commerce has had more of an impact on the design of packaging globally than anything the industry has experienced in the past several decades. There are now limitless opportunities for brand marketers to think about the next generation of shelf presence, the 'hero images' on retailers' websites, and the 'unboxing' experience. In e-commerce, brands are learning that messaging and branding should be split between the shipping container and the interior of the box – with the latter incorporating elements that give consumers a sense of delight and surprise when opening the parcel. While most consumers currently prefer to buy groceries in-store instead of online, the convenience of purchasing online will eventually spill over into food, drink, and household products. Only through an established e-commerce packaging strategy can brands design packs for the worst-case distribution scenario. Meanwhile, there will be huge financial, social, and brand equity gains to be made in the e-commerce packaging arena just by exploiting elements of package optimization rooted in sustainability.”

Plastic-Free

“Marine plastic pollution has become one of the world’s most serious environmental problems, and there is a growing need for different attitudes to the material. New opportunities such as plastic-free aisles, package-free stores and alternative pack materials allow consumers to actively make choices about the plastic that is put out in the world. But these incentives are not without their own challenges. While plastic-free aisles reflect consumer exhaustion with excess plastic packaging, in reality, few would want to lose the convenience and benefits plastic packaging can bring. And while the term 'plastic-free' may appear to be a simple one, there is no universal definition; even plastic-free packaging often includes plant-based plastics, showing the lack of clarity in the plastic-free call. Brands should act now, either to ensure a place in emerging plastic-free zones by switching to acceptable pack materials, or by engaging with the debate, clearly explaining the benefits of plastic packaging to their product, and addressing plastic pollution concerns with appropriate end of life pack solutions.”

February Retail Sales Slump

Retail sales were down 0.7 percent in February seasonally adjusted from January but up 2.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year as delays and revisions related to the government shutdown continued to make comparisons difficult, the National Retail Federation said today. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

 “The weaker-than-expected February retail sales numbers reflect colder weather and increased precipitation that kept shoppers home but were also skewed downward because of the government’s upward revision in January’s results,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The aftereffects of the erratic stock market, the government shutdown and slower tax refunds this year also likely played a role. It is important to look beyond the February figures and focus on the very significant revision to January retail sales, which shows that the consumer has not forsaken the economy as some previously claimed. We still expect growth to pick up, fueled by strong fundamentals like job and wage growth that are driving increased consumer spending. The consumer will continue to provide direction and strength to the U.S. economy in the months ahead.”

As of February, the three-month moving average was up 2.2 percent over the same period a year ago. February’s results build on improvement seen in January, which was up 1.9 percent monthly and 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to revised data released today. January had originally been reported as a 1.3 percent increase over December and up 3.6 percent year-over-year.

NRF’s numbers are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which said today that overall February sales – including auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants – were down 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from January but up 2.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year. The release of retail sales data for December, January and February has been delayed as the Bureau works through a backlog caused by the government shutdown earlier this year. Similarly, the Internal Revenue Service has been slow in issuing refund checks, which traditionally help drive spending in the early months of each year.

The results come as NRF is forecasting that retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent to more than $3.8 trillion. The forecast is subject to revision as more data is released in the coming months.

Specifics from key retail sectors during February include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 10.1 percent year-over-year and up 0.9 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 5.7 percent year-over-year and up 0.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.9 percent year-over-year but down 1.2 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were up 1.5 percent year-over-year but down 4.4 month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 1.1 percent year-over-year but down 0.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.5 percent year-over-year and down 0.4 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.7 percent year-over-year and down 0.5 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 3.8 percent year-over-year and down 1.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Sporting goods stores were down 8.2 percent year-over-year but up 0.5 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

LGBTQ Workplace Equality

Food, beverage and grocery companies continue to work toward LGBTQ workplace equality and inclusion, according to the 2019 Corporate Equality Index (CEI) issued by the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) Foundation, the educational arm of the nation’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) civil rights organization.

The HRC Foundation has strengthened criteria to meet the needs of LGBTQ workers in the most rigorous scorecard to date. Five hundred and seventy-one companies have been designated a Best Place to Work for LGBTQ Equality for their efforts in satisfying all of the CEI’s criteria results in a 100 percent ranking. Twenty-five are Food, beverage and grocery giants.

“From cupboard staples to family restaurants, the companies behind the brands that feed America have demonstrated that LGBTQ inclusion for employees, their families and customers is a priority,” said Beck Bailey, acting director of the HRC Foundation’s Workplace Equality Program.

HRC’s Corporate Equality Index (CEI) is America’s premiere benchmarking tool for LGBTQ workplace equality. The results of this year’s CEI, showcases how hundreds of U.S.-based multinational companies are not only promoting LGBTQ-friendly workplace policies in the U.S., but helping to advance the cause of LGBTQ inclusion in the workplace abroad.

The CEI rates companies and top law firms on detailed criteria in four broad categories:

• Non-discrimination policies
• Employment benefits
• Supporting an inclusive culture and corporate social responsibility including public commitment to LGBTQ equality
• Responsible citizenship

The full report is available online here.