Is it PSL Season Already?

While the restaurant industry has been focused on value meals so far this summer, Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) season has snuck up on us with independent restaurants leading the orange-colored way. 

From May 15 to July 15, SpotOn saw 1,070 “pumpkin” items added to menus across the country, with a spike of 176 items added just between July 7 and 13 alone. They found interest in pumpkin knows no bounds, with all types of establishments adding it to their menus, including cafes, diners, pubs, bakeries, cider works, bars, and even restaurants catering to specific dietary preferences. With the pumpkin spice market forecast to be worth $2.4 billion by 2031, operators are hoping an early PSL season will drive additional revenue after a consumer pullback in spending.

"Call it whatever you want; there’s no denying the power in pumpkin," Kevin Bryla, SpotOn's Chief Marketing Officer, told Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine, when asked if we should flip from calling it PSL season to PS or just pumpkin as the uses on menus expand. "For the past two years, we’ve seen operators ramp up their pumpkin offerings in mid-July, though SpotOn data shows independent operators are ahead of the curve, with pumpkin items appearing as early as May 15 this year.  I’m thrilled to see our independent restaurant clients ahead of the trend, updating their menus with fall specials."

There’s no denying the power in pumpkin.

Bryla said there are a few forces at play with the early arrival of pumpkin menu items, this year.

"For one, we’re experiencing record-breaking heat this summer, which has consumers yearning for both cooler days and the comforting flavors of fall. We are also seeing operators looking at all ways to drive business amidst a consumer pullback in dining out; this includes introducing pumpkin LTOs that spark excitement and drive consumer demand. Restaurants are wise to start the pumpkin conversation earlier; pumpkin additions to menus attract attention and drive business at a time when restaurants need it during the typical drop in business in August."

From a menu category perspective, the SpotOn team is seeing an expansion of pumpkin beyond traditional sweet dishes into more complex savory recipes. Overall, they are seeing restaurants getting even more creative with their pumpkin offerings this year, signaling restaurant operators' desire to attract consumers who have pulled back on spending in recent months. Restaurants are introducing unique items like pumpkin vinaigrette, pumpkin spice Moscow mules, and pumpkin cinnamon macarons.

"We anticipate a broad adoption of pumpkin items across different dining experiences, culinary styles, and dayparts," said Bryla. "We’ve seen a surge in pumpkin breakfast options, including muffins, cinnamon rolls, pancakes, French toast, smoothie bowls, and smoothies. We also anticipate seeing a wider range of dessert options beyond pies into tarts, flans, custards, soufflés, bread puddings, and crème brûlée. What’s exciting to me is that we’re already seeing an expansion of pumpkin beyond traditional sweets and coffees into more complex, savory items such as erissery, spicy seafood pumpkin, pumpkin curry, black bean soup, ravioli, and vinaigrette."

When it comes to pricing, the team at Margin Edge reports that operators and consumers should prepare to spend a bit more on items made with pumpkin puree. A can of pumpkin puree rose 7.4 percent from $9.01 in June 2023 to $9.68 in June 2024. While a pound of pumpkin seeds fell 3.4 percent from$6.21 in June 2023 to $6.00 in June 2024.

Regionally: 

• The Midwest saw a 29 percent increase in the price of canned pumpkin from $8.09 to $10.46, while the cost of a pound of pumpkin seeds saw a minimal increase from $6.47 to $6.49 year over year.
• The Northeast saw a 7.4 percent increase in the price of canned pumpkin from $9.01 to $9.68, while the cost of a pound of pumpkin seeds decreased by 4.8 percent from $6.51 to $6.20 year over year.
• The South saw a .6 percent increase in the price of canned pumpkin from $9.96 to $10.02, while the cost of a pound of pumpkin seeds decreased by 2.2 percent from $6.45 to $6.31 year over year.
• The West saw a 10 percent decrease in the price of canned pumpkin from $9.23 to $8.31, while the cost of a pound of pumpkin seeds decreased slightly from $5.53 to $5.51 year over year.

Embracing the flavors of fall in your beverage menu can be a highly effective strategy to enhance not only sales, but overall business performance and operations, Bryla notes.

"Introducing a seasonal, limited-time offer can create a sense of excitement and anticipation, not only for your guest but also for your staff, and drive sales from late August well into November," Bryla said. "Consumers love experiencing and sharing something new, and a fall-inspired beverage lineup can help operators tap into this. Remember, it’s not just about the menu items themselves but the emotions and memories they evoke – feelings of cozy sweater weather, fall gatherings, and comforting flavors."

Bryla suggests that operators start by deepening their understanding of their concept and guest preferences as each establishment is unique, and what works for one might not work for another. Seasonal offerings work best when they align with guest tastes and business needs. 

"And once you have a great idea, use it to reconnect with your guests. Communication is key, and your seasonal offerings provide an excellent opportunity to engage with your clientele. Email marketing and social media tools built into your point-of-sale can be powerful ways to spread the word about your fall beverages. By showcasing the offerings' unique flavors and limited-time nature, you create a sense of urgency and anticipation that drives more customers through your doors."