A Million a Minute: Adaptability and Innovation Define Brand Winners

Despite economic uncertainty, a million dollars per minute was spent at restaurants in 2025 with 99.7 percent of U.S. adults visiting a top 50 chain, according to Circana’s 2026 Definitive U.S. Restaurant Ranking Report. The top three – McDonald's, Starbucks, and Chick-fil-A – led by a wide margin, generating more than $107 billion and accounting for 32 percent of total spending at the the top 50. In total, restaurant spending grew by three percent year over year.

“Each of the top three restaurant chains have been around in the U.S. for over 50 years and over the years have dialed in on their competitive advantages and customers,” Brooks Berrodin, director of Thought Leadership, Foodservice at Circana, told Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine. “Each brand operates in a different category, showing that success is possible for restaurants in many ways. Top-growing chains in 2025 came out of multiple restaurant segments and cuisines. Many full-service restaurants are doing better than ever despite the continued growth of delivery.”

Growth, Efficiency, and AUV Extremes

The Top 50 restaurants represent 61 percent of spending, but only 24 percent of locations. Berrodin said one of the main reasons is that large restaurant chains have efficient operations due to their scale and are able to bring in a much bigger average unit volume (AUV) than smaller brands and independent restaurants. She suggests newer brands should focus on providing high quality food and beverage and building a loyal customer base to help differentiate from large brands.

Among the report highlights:

• Quick-service burger chains dominate, with 11 different chains represented in the top 50.

• Dutch Bros Coffee (40) showed the highest spending growth with a 22 percent increase, alongside an 11 percent growth in location count.

• The Cheesecake Factory (37) leads in efficiency per store, with $12.8 million AUV.

• Chick-fil-A holds the highest AUV for a quick-service restaurant at $7.2 million, nearly double that of McDonald's at $4 million.

• Subway has the lowest AUV in the top 10 at just $0.5 million, despite having the second-highest location count at 18,266.

One brand that made notable movement was Chili's which jumped eight spots to 11 to become the largest casual dining chain,overtaking Olive Garden. Chili’s saw a 19-percent increase in consumer spending change, the highest growth rate among the top 20 restaurants, in part due to a kid-friendly environment and “unbeatable value,” the report found. 

The Value Equation

Value continued to be top of mind for consumers in 2025 and will remain important in 2026, Berrodin added. 

“In our CREST® data, we saw a record share of restaurant visits that included a deal in 2025. Consumers of all income levels increasing used deals in 2025. However, value is about more than just price, and chains that grew traffic in 2025 also prioritized food quality, menu innovation, and the consumer experience.” (CREST is Circana’s flagship study of consumer purchases of restaurant-prepared meals, snacks, and beverages.)

Even though the U.S. population is aging, one-third of all restaurant visits in 2025 included kids under 18, Berrodin said.

“Families are a key customer group for restaurants, and brands that did well in 2025 grew family visits, even though total family visits to restaurants in 2025 were down.”

Fast Moving Categories

Specialty beverage chains are among the restaurants growing the fastest and they also tend to outperform the industry average for customer satisfaction, Berrodin noted. These chains win on the quality of food and beverages served, and customization is often a differentiating factor. 

Additionally, the current wellbeing movement is large and presents restaurants with just as many opportunities as challenges, she said. 

“Health-focused consumers are still going out to eat frequently. However, when they do, they’re looking for nutrient dense options and smaller portions. We’re going to see a rise in ingredient and nutrition transparency and more sizes offered as restaurants adapt to changing consumer preferences.”

Among chains that underperformed in 2025, a key attribute where they often fall short with customers is food quality, she said. 

“Price and innovation are important, but the number one priority needs to be perfecting core menu items.” 

David Portalatin, senior vice president and food industry advisor for Circana, said operators proved highly adaptable and innovative last year and those who maintain that forward-thinking, resilient mindset in 2026 will continue to find success and drive industry growth.

The most important metric for a brand is traffic, Berrodin said, with every restaurant aiming to grow traffic each year through increased penetration and purchase frequency. 

“If a brand can both increase the number of unique customers it serves each year, and get those customers to visit more times on average, then it will be among the top-growing restaurants.”

To qualify for the top 50, a restaurant must achieve annual consumer spending exceeding $1.41 billion. The list features 35 quick-service restaurants, 10 casual dining establishments, and five midscale chains. The Definitive Restaurant Ranking leverages multiple data products and services from Circana’s research portfolio. Estimates for the 2026 report are anchored on CREST®, using data from the 12 months ending December 2025. Location counts are sourced from Circana’s ReCount® service, a census of foodservice operators.